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Daily Market Commentary for November 10, 2009

Dow Jones

Stocks slowly rose this morning after Monday's rallies; in yesterdays trading session the Dow Jones climbed over 200 points to record highs of 2009. Stocks have been rallying over the past couple of months despite a couple of losses, analysts thank low interest rates and the dollar's continued fall as being major factors of the rise over the past several months. November is usually a good month for the stock market, stocks unusually see large gains and this November is proving that to be correct. Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day at its highest level in 13 months yesterday reaching 10,226.94 after G-20 leaders met over the weekend and decided that it is crucial for continuing government aid. Some were surprised by the climb after last week's reports were somewhat glum; it just shows that investors are focusing their attention on other things, such as the dollar which continues to fall. Investors are watching the dollar fall and it is helping boost stocks higher, when the dollar is weaker it allows investors access to cheap debt, they are able to buy more assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities like gold and oil. Federal Reserve officials warned today that unemployment will remain high for the next several years due to a slow recovery, with the housing market struggling right now the economy isn't strong enough for people to feel confident enough to hire new employees, everyone who has had their business affected by last year's crash is still trying to recover. In today's trading session commodities continued their rise, oil reached $79.05 a barrel as gold reached highs of $1,102.50, the dollar was also on the rise today, it rose against the pound and the euro. Bond prices rose, the yield on the benchmark 10- year Treasury note fell to 3.47 from 3.48 Monday.

Janet Yellen, President Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco:
Banks creating systemic risk need capital, liquidity requirements; size cap on large banks not desirable; commercial real estate market lacks confidence; a lot distressed debt remains in commercial property; long-term change in spending habits is possible; American consumer remains very cautious; overseas recovery could help U.S. exports; by 2011, stimulus's effect will begin to wind down; congress's stimulus is helpful to economy; doesn't see risk of deflation; fed sees high unemployment for some years; high unemployment alone not enough to keep rates low; sees inflation drifting down a bit; not in favor of single, central regulator.

Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston comments:
Supports living wills for companies; globalization complicating banking problems; big global banks hard to resolve in times of trouble; systemically key kirms need to hold more capital; repeats support for debt to equity securities; makes no comment on rate policy, economy; supervisors must prevent build up of too much risk; need international bank resolution schemes; need to manage capital requirements better.

Energy Information Administration:
4Q U.S. Oil use seen at 18.86M B/D, -2.3% versus year ago; 2009 U.S. CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels seen down 5.6%; 4Q U.S. Oil use revised down 0.6% from October to 18.86M barrels per day; 1Q 2010 U.S. Oil use seen at 18.97M barrels per day, +0.7% versus year; U.S. Retail Gasoline to average $2.81/gallons in 2010; OPEC oil output 29.0M barrels per day in first 9 months, down 2.4 Million barrels per day; U.S. CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels seen up 1.5% in 2010; Raises 2010 WTI Crude Oil Price outlook by 7.9%; U.S. Natural Gas production to fall 3.8% in 2010; U.S. Electricity demand seen rising 1.6% in 2010; 2009 Oil use seen at 18.72M barrels per day, -4% versus year ago; WTI Crude Oil to average $78.13/ barrel in 2010; U.S. Electricity demand seen dropping 3.6% in '09; '09 Coal CO2 Emissions seen down slightly more than 10%; U.S. Diesel to average $2.94/gallon in 2010; U.S. Natural Gas consumption to slip 1.1% in 2010; 4Q World Oil use seen at 84.99M barrels per day, +0.4% versus year ago; U.S. Coal Production seen dropping more than 7% in '09; OPEC Oil Production to average 29.4M barrels per day in 2010; Raises 2010 Gasoline, Diesel Price forecasts by 6%; U.S. Residential Electricity Prices seen dropping 0.8% in 2010; U.S. Residential Heating Oil to average $2.80/ gallon in winter; 1Q 2010 World Oil use seen at 85.18M barrels per day, +2% versus 2009; U.S. Diesel to average $2.79/ gallon in 4Q '09; U.S. Coal Production seen dropping 1.4% in 2010; 2009 World Oil use seen at 84.14M barrels per day, -1.9% versus year ago; Raises US Residential Heating Oil price forecast by 7%; 2010 World Oil use seen at 85.4M barrels per day, +1.5% versus 2009; OPEC October Oil Output rises 30,000 barrels per day on month to 29.43M barrels per day; 2010 World Oil use forecast revised +0.7% versus October; 4Q China Oil use revised +1% versus October to 8.45 M barrels per day;  4Q China Oil use seen +12.1% versus year ago; '09 use +4.9%; revises up September OPEC Oil Output to 29.40 Million barrels per day.

Economic data released today:

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism:

U.S. November IBD/TIPP 6-Month Economic Outlook 49.2; U.S. November IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index 47.9 versus October 48.7.

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the trading session on the world markets as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:

DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) gain 17.71 points, EOD 10,243.95
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) shed 8.91, EOD 7,126.42
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) shed 2.98 points, EOD 2,151.08
S&P 500 (SPX) shed 0.07 points, EOD 1,093.01
BEL 20 (BEL20) shed 18.95 points, EOD 2,465.35
CAC 40 (CAC40) gain 0.1 points, EOD 3,785.59
FTSE100 (UKX100) shed 4.63 points, EOD 5,230.55
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) shed 78.75 points, EOD 9,870.73

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the trading session today:

Advanced stock prices 1,293 declined stock prices 1,789, unchanged stock prices 84, stock prices hitting new highs 174 and stock prices hitting new lows 10. NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: AIG gain 1.38, HOD 39.35, LOD 37.08, EOD 37.56; FLR shed 3.63, HOD 46.39, LOD 44.09, EOD 44.38; FAS shed 0.75, HOD 79.17, LOD 75.65, EOD 77.81; CME shed 5.95, HOD 313.49, LOD 307.78, EOD 307.79; RTP gain 1.45, HOD 207.92, LOD 201.92, EOD 206.18; SF gain 1.50, HOD 55.68, LOD 53.64, EOD 54.48.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 895, declined stock prices 1,824, unchanged stock prices 135, stock prices hitting new highs 87 and stock prices hitting new lows 42. NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: BIDU gain 2.25, HOD 428.88, LOD 421.75, EOD 428.12; FSLR gain 0.40, HOD 123.85, LOD 119.00, EOD 119.90; FSYS shed 0.82, HOD 47.21, LOD 44.56, EOD 46.75; PCLN gain 30.49, HOD 209.19, LOD 191.62, EOD 204.22; AAPL gain 1.52, HOD 204.98, LOD 201.01, EOD 202.38; WYNN gain 0.55, HOD 64.46, LOD 62.06, EOD 64.09; CLNE shed 0.81, HOD 12.25, LOD 11.55, EOD 12.03; HMIN gain 3.44, HOD 36.40, LOD 34.03, EOD 36.33; GEOY gain 3.44, HOD 36.40, LOD 34.03, EOD 36.33; HOLX gain 0.45, HOD 15.81, LOD 14.95, EOD 15.77.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for the trading session today:

Advanced stock prices 204, declined stock prices 310, unchanged stock prices 46, stock prices hitting new highs 18 and stock prices hitting new lows 4.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market for the day, at time of this posting:

E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Dec 09: EOD 1090.50; Change -1.25
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) Dec 09: EOD 1,771.25; Change 4.75
E-mini DOW $5 (YM) Dec 09: EOD 10,210; Change 18
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 (MF) Dec 09: EOD 695.90; Change 1.30
Nikkei 225 (Yen) Dec 09: EOD 9,915; Change -75

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.6676 U.S. Dollars 1.4979
Japanese Yen 89.8300 to U.S. Dollars 0.0111
British Pound 0.5979 to U.S. Dollars 1.6726
Canadian Dollar 1.0494 to U.S. Dollars 0.9529
Swiss Franc 1.0081 to U.S. Dollars 0.9920

COMMODITY MARKETS:
Energy Sector - Nymex:
Light Crude (December 09) shed $0.38, EOD $79.05 per barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (December 09) shed $0.01, EOD $2.05 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (December 09) shed $0.20, EOD $4.47 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (December 09) unchanged $0.00, EOD $1.98 a gallon ($US per gallon) 

Metals Markets - Comex:
Gold (December 09) gain $1.10, EOD $1,102.50 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (December 09) shed $0.26, EOD $17.22 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (January 09) shed $16.00, EOD $1,351.20 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (December 09) shed $0.01, EOD $2.96 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (December 09) shed $0.18, EOD $55.63
Pork Bellies (February 10) shed $0.23, EOD $84.38
Live Cattle (December 09) shed $0.35, EOD $84.60
Feeder Cattle (January 10) shed $0.98, EOD $94.73

Other Commodities - Chicago Board of Trade (cents per bushel):

Corn (December 09) gain $8.50, EOD $394.50
Soybeans (January 10) shed $4.00, EOD $964.50

BOND MARKET:
2 year EOD 100 10/32, change 1/32, Yield 0.83, Yield change -0.02
5 year EOD 100 12/32, change 1/32, Yield 2.29, Yield change 0.00
10 year EOD 101 7/32, change 3/32, Yield 3.47, Yield change -0.01                     
30 year EOD 101 15/32, change -6/32, Yield 4.41, change 0.02

Access upcoming scheduled economic data anytime by viewing the Economic Calendar from Millennium-Traders, free access to visitors on our website.

Visitors may subscribe to our free Weekly MarketNews for a review of the previous weeks trading news plus, view upcoming economic data scheduled for the week ahead.

Review current edition as well as, archives of the News & Commentary plus, view complete details of calls made in our Trading Rooms and stock picks from our Swing Trading service. Traders should review our FREE Monthly Trading Lesson posted on our website.
 


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News & Commentary

Daily Market Commentary for March 12, 2010

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Forex Trading Room Performance for March 12, 2010

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Stocks Trading Room Performance for March 11, 2010

Futures Trading Room Performance for March 11, 2010

Forex Trading Room Performance for March 11, 2010

Daily Swing Trades Performance for March 11, 2010


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