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During these uncertain market
times, market direction during any one given market session, can be
questionable. Economic data can play a key role during a market session, as to
overall market direction. This direction issue can affect not only the Stock
Market but also Futures Market and Forex Market. The key to successful trading
is to recognize a move in market direction and attempt to utilize that
information.
While not all stocks will react
to either negative or positive economic data released during any market trading
day, all day traders must consistently remain vigilant as to sudden reversals in
any stock. Failure to pay attention when holding an open position can result in
losses and some of these losses can be extreme. Traders and day traders should
make it a point of reviewing upcoming economic data for the then current market
session, prior to the start of trading. Knowing what economic data is scheduled
to be released for the day, should be a guide for all traders. Traders should
review the
Economic Calendar for upcoming scheduled economic data, for the week.
The awareness of scheduled
economic data should enable more decisive entry decisions for traders. For
example, if a trader or day trader becomes aware of data scheduled for release
at a particular time during a market session, they may wish to remain cash on
the sidelines, until the data is released. Not all economic data will have an
adverse reaction in the markets. Time and experience by a trader will improve
their ability to ‘know’ what will or will not move the markets.
Economic data related to
unemployment or jobs, generally move all markets as they tend to relate as an
economic indicator. Jobless Claims provides the number of individuals who filed
for unemployment insurance for the first time and normally, moves the markets.
Increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market.
Release of home sales data will
generally move home builders, as an example. Construction Spending includes the
dollar value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential and
public projects. Data is normally available in nominal and real
(inflation-adjusted) dollars. Pending Home Sales index provided by National
Association of Realtors (NAR) developed the pending home sales index as a
leading indicator of housing activity. Pending Home Sale is a contract was
signed but, not yet closed. Normally it takes four to six weeks to close a
contracted sale.
Release of news related to the
Federal Reserve will no doubt create a stir in market action, across the board.
FOMC Minutes are minutes of most recent meeting.
Consumer Confidence data
pertains to consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations
of future conditions.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
measures a monthly fixed basket of goods by stage-of-production, industry and
commodity. Stage-of-production organizes products by degree of fabrication into
three broad groups: finished goods, intermediate materials, supplies and
components plus crude materials for further processing. PPI measures prices at
the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. PPI is considered
a precursor of consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to
manufacturers increase, then businesses are faced with either charging higher
prices or reducing profits.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
includes services components which are more stable than goods. CPI is the price
index with the most impact in setting interest rates. Wages are a larger share
of costs at the retail level. Commodity prices generally react more quickly to
supply and demand.
The producer price index for finished goods is the most widely quoted of the
various indexes, but as financial market participants have become more
sophisticated, they have begun to monitor the indexes for the earlier stages of
processing -- intermediate goods and crude materials -- as predictors for the
finished goods index.
Import and Export Prices are
compiled for the price of goods that are bought into the United States but,
produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but, produced domestically.
Prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
For traders playing the Futures market, Crude Oil
Inventories provided by Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides
information on petroleum inventories in the U.S. The level of inventories
assists in determining prices for petroleum products.
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